登记事项
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Polymarket
- 来源
- Polymarket
- 类别
- 长周期
- 截止
- 2027-01-01（73 天）
- 成交
- $42.3M
- 结果集
- Yes / No
市场概率
4%
04.4%100
本站判断
—
0未接入100
分歧
—
模型接入后填列。空栏不以估算值填充。
模型分列
七席俱缺，待模型接入| 席位 | 说明 | 判断 | 权重 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 经济模型 | 空 | — |
| Math | 数学模型 | 空 | — |
| Physics / Statistics | 物理与统计模型 | 空 | — |
| News | 新闻模型 | 空 | — |
| KOL | KOL 模型 | 空 | — |
| LLM Debate | 多模型辩论 | 空 | — |
| JKJ | 非传统实验信号 | 空 | — |
结算规则
以下为来源网站原文，本簿不改写、不翻译、不作解释。
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.