登记事项
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Polymarket
- 来源
- Polymarket
- 类别
- 长周期
- 截止
- 2026-12-31（132 天）
- 成交
- $39.9M
- 结果集
- Yes / No
市场概率
4%
03.9%100
本站判断
—
0未接入100
分歧
—
模型接入后填列。空栏不以估算值填充。
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结算规则
以下为来源网站原文，本簿不改写、不翻译、不作解释。
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.